BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969
74Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Brown-headed Cowbird has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 3.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029
10Projected 2029 index
3.8–1795% range
±10.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025114.918
2026114.618
2027114.318
2028114.117
2029103.817

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Oaks and Prairies.
RhomeTEXAS482024
Three RiversTEXAS482024
E GeorgetownTEXAS401979
DuranTEXAS381999
OakwoodTEXAS371995
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA342018
SkiatookOKLAHOMA332019
HeyburnOKLAHOMA322024
LocoOKLAHOMA311985
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA292009
TatumsOKLAHOMA272024
ComancheTEXAS252024
DecaturTEXAS242024
BriteTEXAS232024
AlbanyTEXAS212024
CayugaTEXAS212024
DuncanOKLAHOMA192024
Miller GroveTEXAS192024
SchroederTEXAS181997
CampbelltonTEXAS182024
CottonwoodTEXAS182024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS182024
Massey LakeTEXAS162024
BeggsOKLAHOMA152023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.