BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brewer's Blackbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brewer's Blackbird has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brewer's Blackbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.514
2026106.614
2027106.714
2028106.814
2029106.814

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LambertMONTANA1002024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA822024
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA822017
WhitlashMONTANA672024
GlasgowMONTANA582024
Hay LakeMONTANA572022
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA502024
LockhartMINNESOTA382024
HarlemMONTANA362021
SacoMONTANA332024
GlentanaMONTANA312024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA292024
Sun RiverMONTANA282024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA272024
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA272016
OkleeMINNESOTA252021
ClevelandMONTANA252024
ShelbyMONTANA242024
SunburstMONTANA232007
Great FallsMONTANA232024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA202011
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA182024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA152024
OswegoMONTANA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.