BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brewer's Blackbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+109%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brewer's Blackbird has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brewer's Blackbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026106.514
2027106.614
2028106.714
2029106.714
2030106.814

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA822017
WhitlashMONTANA672024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA622025
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA482025
Sun RiverMONTANA402025
SacoMONTANA392025
Hay LakeMONTANA372025
HarlemMONTANA362021
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA332025
ClevelandMONTANA302025
Great FallsMONTANA292025
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA272016
OkleeMINNESOTA252021
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA242025
SunburstMONTANA232007
GlentanaMONTANA232025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA232023
LambertMONTANA222025
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA202011
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA192025
GildfordMONTANA182025
GlyndonMINNESOTA162025
ShelbyMONTANA162025
VirgelleMONTANA152025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.