BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181124
2026181124
2027181124
2028181124
2029181124

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bobolink in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA612024
Big StoneMINNESOTA592012
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA592024
HartlandMINNESOTA482017
OkleeMINNESOTA472021
LambertMONTANA432024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA392022
TracyMINNESOTA352024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA312024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA292014
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA292024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA292012
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA292016
WestbyMONTANA282024
NashNORTH-DAKOTA272017
LockhartMINNESOTA262024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA252024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA252024
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA252014
RedstoneMONTANA242024
SpartaNEBRASKA242021
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA232013
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA222023
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA212024
ChandlerMINNESOTA202023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.