BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171024
2027171024
2028171124
2029171124
2030171124

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bobolink in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA592012
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA552025
LambertMONTANA542025
LockhartMINNESOTA492025
HartlandMINNESOTA482017
OkleeMINNESOTA472021
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA412025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA352025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA292014
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA292012
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA292016
RedstoneMONTANA272025
NashNORTH-DAKOTA272017
BeltramiMINNESOTA262025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA252025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA252025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA252025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA252014
ChandlerMINNESOTA242025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA232025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA232013
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA232025
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA222023
WestbyMONTANA202025
MidwayNEBRASKA202025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.