BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 5.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 5.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.316
2027116.115
2028115.915
2029105.715
2030105.415

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlturasFLORIDA431986
Myakka HeadFLORIDA392011
Mt. OliveFLORIDA382025
Pleasant GrFLORIDA362009
MabelFLORIDA332011
ChildsFLORIDA332022
FlemingtonFLORIDA321999
Dale MabryFLORIDA311988
Ridge HarborFLORIDA312025
DavieFLORIDA302017
Citrus ParkFLORIDA292025
GardnerFLORIDA281999
CroomFLORIDA272025
SalvistaFLORIDA241979
Boca RatonFLORIDA241994
IndiantownFLORIDA232017
Winter GardnFLORIDA232019
ArbuckleFLORIDA232021
St LucieFLORIDA232025
RedlandsFLORIDA222024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA212025
Polk CityFLORIDA202025
OcalaFLORIDA202025
MicanopyFLORIDA191991
Indiantown 2FLORIDA192025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.