BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.516
2026116.316
2027116.016
2028115.815
2029105.615

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Blue Jay in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OcalaFLORIDA492024
AlturasFLORIDA431986
Myakka HeadFLORIDA392011
Ridge HarborFLORIDA372024
Pleasant GrFLORIDA362009
MabelFLORIDA332011
ChildsFLORIDA332022
FlemingtonFLORIDA321999
Mt. OliveFLORIDA322024
Dale MabryFLORIDA311988
CitrusFLORIDA312024
DavieFLORIDA302017
GardnerFLORIDA281999
Mabel 2FLORIDA252019
SalvistaFLORIDA241979
Boca RatonFLORIDA241994
IndiantownFLORIDA232017
Winter GardnFLORIDA232019
ArbuckleFLORIDA232021
RedlandsFLORIDA222024
RomeoFLORIDA212024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA212024
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA212024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA202024
MicanopyFLORIDA191991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.