BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Blue Jay in Piedmont has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
171Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141117
2027141117
2028141117
2029141017
2030141017

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Blue Jay in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY472025
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA442019
FairplayGEORGIA401991
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA402024
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA402024
LincolntonGEORGIA372017
WheatonMARYLAND362025
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA351968
Liberty City 2ALABAMA322025
OlneyMARYLAND312025
PendletonSOUTH-CAROLINA291976
Liberty CityALABAMA282011
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA282015
PassaicNEW-JERSEY261969
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA262025
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA262025
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA261988
EkloMARYLAND252018
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA242025
Sunny SideGEORGIA242019
SandbrookNEW-JERSEY242025
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA242025
BowdonGEORGIA232025
HiramGEORGIA232018
JulietteGEORGIA232025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.