BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Blue Jay in Piedmont has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
171Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141118
2026141117
2027141117
2028141117
2029141017

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Blue Jay in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY462024
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA442019
FairplayGEORGIA401991
RutledgeGEORGIA402024
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA402024
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA402024
LincolntonGEORGIA372017
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA351968
Liberty City 2ALABAMA332024
PendletonSOUTH-CAROLINA291976
Liberty CityALABAMA282011
Good HopeGEORGIA282024
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA282015
WheatonMARYLAND272024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND262024
PassaicNEW-JERSEY261969
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA261988
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA262024
MillervilleALABAMA252024
OlneyMARYLAND252024
EkloMARYLAND252018
WhitesburgGEORGIA242024
Sunny SideGEORGIA242019
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA242024
HiramGEORGIA232018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.