BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171222
2027171222
2028171221
2029171221
2030171221

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DibollTEXAS702025
LongstreetLOUISIANA452025
Easton 2TEXAS412025
Mt. SelmanTEXAS392025
Fishville 2LOUISIANA352025
Powell ParkTEXAS352021
FishvilleLOUISIANA342017
AthensTEXAS332025
MortonTEXAS322025
ChandlerTEXAS312004
Chandler 2TEXAS302024
EastonLOUISIANA291990
Mount UnionLOUISIANA292025
Fort JessupLOUISIANA292023
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA291997
BlakelyARKANSAS281999
ZwolleLOUISIANA282023
Union HillTEXAS282024
CypressLOUISIANA271987
TroutLOUISIANA272025
Neches BithTEXAS272017
De RidderLOUISIANA262019
CaledoniaTEXAS262025
SmyrnaTEXAS262010
Coal HillARKANSAS252023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.