BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171222
2026171222
2027171222
2028171221
2029171221

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Blue Jay in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fishville 2LOUISIANA542024
Mt. SelmanTEXAS542024
LongstreetLOUISIANA522024
DibollTEXAS452024
ClayLOUISIANA402024
MortonTEXAS372024
AthensTEXAS372024
Powell ParkTEXAS352021
Easton 2TEXAS352024
FishvilleLOUISIANA342017
GoodwillLOUISIANA322024
CrossroadsTEXAS322024
ChandlerTEXAS312004
Chandler 2TEXAS302024
WechesTEXAS302024
EastonLOUISIANA291990
Fort JessupLOUISIANA292023
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA291997
BlakelyARKANSAS281999
ZwolleLOUISIANA282023
Union HillTEXAS282024
CypressLOUISIANA271987
Neches BithTEXAS272017
De RidderLOUISIANA262019
CaledoniaTEXAS262024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.