BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Blue Jay in Oaks and Prairies has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.6–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.6–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.77.1
20275.43.77.1
20285.43.77.1
20295.43.77.1
20305.43.67.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Blue Jay in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaTEXAS272025
LydiaTEXAS172025
HearneTEXAS172025
Wills PointTEXAS172023
OakwoodTEXAS161995
DallasTEXAS132025
BonnerTEXAS132025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA112025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS112025
Oak GroveTEXAS111999
OlaTEXAS112025
DikeTEXAS112025
Massey LakeTEXAS102025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS102025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS102025
PaigeTEXAS102025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA92025
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA91977
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA92025
MuldoonTEXAS92025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA82025
Miller GroveTEXAS82025
SadlerTEXAS82025
LockhartTEXAS72025
GauseTEXAS71997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.