BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Blue Jay in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+260%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Blue Jay In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±468.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±468.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±468.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.001.9
20260.790.001.9
20270.790.001.9
20280.800.001.9
20290.800.001.9

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Blue Jay in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeanderTEXAS92006
GeorgetownTEXAS41983
Pidcoke 2TEXAS32024
PidcokeTEXAS22017
AdamsvilleTEXAS21995
Dripping SpgTEXAS22024
LeakeyTEXAS22022
BoerneTEXAS12023
UtopiaTEXAS11995
Valley SpgsTEXAS12000
San SabaTEXAS11985
KempnerTEXAS12023
ManorTEXAS12024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.