BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Blue Jay in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 3.9–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 3.9–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.97.6
20265.73.97.6
20275.73.97.6
20285.73.97.6
20295.73.97.6

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS782024
KanopolisKANSAS512024
Jewell 2KANSAS372024
JewellKANSAS242005
MinneapolisKANSAS202019
WellingtonKANSAS152024
PhillipsburgKANSAS152022
Red CloudNEBRASKA132024
GrayKANSAS122019
Liberty 3NEBRASKA122024
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA122021
HollenbergKANSAS112023
BeloitKANSAS112003
KearneyNEBRASKA112024
BartlettNEBRASKA111976
BradyNEBRASKA112024
BuckeyeKANSAS102023
JamestownKANSAS102024
Beloit 2KANSAS102018
ColonyOKLAHOMA101995
DaltonKANSAS92024
BoelusNEBRASKA92022
HollisOKLAHOMA92024
ClarendonTEXAS92024
HanoverKANSAS82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.