BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+131%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Grosbeak In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.001.0
20270.400.001.0
20280.400.001.0
20290.400.001.0
20300.400.001.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelmoreFLORIDA82024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA72025
NobletonFLORIDA62025
MabelFLORIDA52011
St AugustineFLORIDA42025
DeanvilleFLORIDA42015
FlemingtonFLORIDA31999
Island GroveFLORIDA32025
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
RomeoFLORIDA22024
San AntonioFLORIDA22023
Citrus ParkFLORIDA22013
Green SwampFLORIDA22025
CitrusFLORIDA22021
GoetheFLORIDA22023
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA21997
MicanopyFLORIDA11991
Polk CityFLORIDA11980
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12009
KenansvilleFLORIDA11992
IndiantownFLORIDA11980
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12022
Pennywash CrFLORIDA12015
Winter GardnFLORIDA12017
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.