BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Blue Grosbeak In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.73–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.73–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.742.7
20271.70.742.7
20281.70.732.7
20291.70.732.7
20301.70.732.7

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA172025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA172025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA82025
SadlerTEXAS82025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA72025
SkiatookOKLAHOMA72019
TatumsOKLAHOMA62025
GainesvilleTEXAS62025
DecaturTEXAS62024
BeggsOKLAHOMA52023
Massey LakeTEXAS52025
LydiaTEXAS52025
BriteTEXAS52024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA42008
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA42025
NobleOKLAHOMA32025
DuncanOKLAHOMA32025
MuldoonTEXAS32024
LockhartTEXAS32025
DikeTEXAS32025
OlneyTEXAS32024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS32025
WalburgTEXAS32025
Three RiversTEXAS32025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.