BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.68–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.68–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.702.6
20261.60.692.6
20271.60.692.6
20281.60.682.6
20291.60.682.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA252024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA132018
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA122024
SadlerTEXAS92024
GainesvilleTEXAS82024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA72019
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA62024
TatumsOKLAHOMA62024
DecaturTEXAS62024
BeggsOKLAHOMA52023
BriteTEXAS52024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA42008
DuncanOKLAHOMA42024
CayugaTEXAS42024
Three RiversTEXAS42024
MuldoonTEXAS32024
Massey LakeTEXAS32024
OlneyTEXAS32024
Blue RidgeTEXAS32024
GreenvilleTEXAS32024
ComancheTEXAS32021
LocoOKLAHOMA21985
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22009
NobleOKLAHOMA22024
HobsonTEXAS22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.