BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+148%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.04–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.04–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.030.61
20260.320.030.61
20270.330.040.61
20280.330.040.62
20290.330.040.62

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MidwayNEBRASKA122023
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
SpartaNEBRASKA72021
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA62024
ChandlerMINNESOTA52023
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
Winside 2NEBRASKA42022
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
TildenNEBRASKA32024
ScrantonIOWA22021
ClareIOWA22019
HuntleyMINNESOTA22024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22024
TracyMINNESOTA22024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22011
WinsideNEBRASKA22002
PoncaNEBRASKA22024
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
MccallsburgIOWA12024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA12015
GluekMINNESOTA12018
GlyndonMINNESOTA12012
TylerMINNESOTA12024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.