BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-21%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±305.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±305.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±305.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.010.13
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.14
20290.080.010.14
20300.080.020.14

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaurierWASHINGTON62022
FeathervilleIDAHO32023
NinemileMONTANA32003
MaybellCOLORADO22021
Browns ParkCOLORADO22022
NaplesIDAHO22022
CentervilleIDAHO22003
Rochat DivdeIDAHO22024
ChewelahWASHINGTON22019
CurlewWASHINGTON22013
Soda LakeWYOMING22003
AlturasIDAHO11985
CoolinIDAHO12023
CabartonIDAHO11993
Crane CreekIDAHO12007
KalispellMONTANA12016
St RegisMONTANA12008
Thompson RivMONTANA12009
Whitefish LakeMONTANA12024
GreenoughMONTANA12000
BridgeportOREGON12018
Silver CreekOREGON11993
Howard Mdws.OREGON11999
NewbridgeOREGON12025
Neponset ResUTAH12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.