BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+55%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.02–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.020.14
20260.080.020.14
20270.080.020.14
20280.080.020.14
20290.080.020.14

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaurierWASHINGTON62022
FeathervilleIDAHO32023
NinemileMONTANA32003
MaybellCOLORADO22021
Browns ParkCOLORADO22022
NaplesIDAHO22022
CentervilleIDAHO22003
ChewelahWASHINGTON22019
CurlewWASHINGTON22013
Soda LakeWYOMING22003
AlturasIDAHO11985
CoolinIDAHO12023
CabartonIDAHO11993
Crane CreekIDAHO12007
Rochat DivdeIDAHO12002
KalispellMONTANA12016
St RegisMONTANA12008
Thompson RivMONTANA12009
Whitefish LakeMONTANA12024
GreenoughMONTANA12000
BridgeportOREGON12018
Silver CreekOREGON11993
Howard Mdws.OREGON11999
NewbridgeOREGON12024
Neponset ResUTAH12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.