BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 5.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 5.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.25.611
20278.25.711
20288.35.711
20298.35.811
20308.35.811

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS712019
WarrenCONNECTICUT582011
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS432025
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS422025
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS412007
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS402007
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS342025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT322018
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND312018
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS302025
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS251994
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS252025
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT232025
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS232025
HauppaugeNEW-YORK232018
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT212025
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS212009
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE212025
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE212025
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS202022
ManorvilleNEW-YORK192024
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND182025
MysticCONNECTICUT172023
Long HillCONNECTICUT172019
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS171983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.