BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.35.711
20268.35.811
20278.35.811
20288.45.811
20298.45.911

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS752024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS712019
WarrenCONNECTICUT582011
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS412007
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS402007
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS332022
WillimanticCONNECTICUT322018
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND312018
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS282024
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS272024
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS251994
HauppaugeNEW-YORK232018
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS212009
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS212024
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS202022
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS192024
ManorvilleNEW-YORK192024
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND192010
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE182024
MysticCONNECTICUT172023
Long HillCONNECTICUT172019
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS171983
E HartlandCONNECTICUT161992
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT162022
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.