BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 412% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+412%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 412% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.8–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.8–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.06.39.6
20278.16.49.8
20288.26.59.9
20298.36.610.0
20308.46.810

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA412025
CohoctahMICHIGAN292025
AlmenaMICHIGAN262015
EdwardsMINNESOTA252024
GalesburgMICHIGAN222025
KnappMINNESOTA212025
N FreedomWISCONSIN212025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN182025
St CharlesMICHIGAN182019
No BradleyMICHIGAN182025
Belding 2MICHIGAN182025
LapeerMICHIGAN182025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN162025
HartlandMICHIGAN162011
HudsonWISCONSIN152025
HatfieldWISCONSIN151998
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN142025
BeldingMICHIGAN142003
HungerfordMICHIGAN142025
DresserWISCONSIN142024
RochesterMICHIGAN132025
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN122025
CumberlandWISCONSIN122025
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN122025
MontereyMICHIGAN112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.