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Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 396% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+396%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 396% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.06.39.6
20268.16.49.7
20278.26.59.8
20288.36.69.9
20298.46.710

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brook ParkMINNESOTA352024
OsseoMINNESOTA342024
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA292024
AlmenaMICHIGAN262015
EdwardsMINNESOTA252024
KnappMINNESOTA232024
ParisWISCONSIN212024
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN212024
CohoctahMICHIGAN202024
St CharlesMICHIGAN182019
St StephenMINNESOTA182016
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN172024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN172024
HudsonWISCONSIN172024
HartlandMICHIGAN162011
HatfieldWISCONSIN151998
SaxevilleWISCONSIN152024
BeldingMICHIGAN142003
MontereyMICHIGAN142024
DresserWISCONSIN142024
RemusMICHIGAN132024
Belding 2MICHIGAN132024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN132024
VeronaWISCONSIN122024
GalesburgMICHIGAN112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.