BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-billed Magpie In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Magpie in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Magpie In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.42–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.42–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.980.401.6
20270.990.401.6
20280.990.411.6
20291.000.411.6
20301.00.421.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ErieMINNESOTA252017
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA192025
RedstoneMONTANA152025
WylieMINNESOTA102024
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA102011
WhitlashMONTANA92024
ClevelandMONTANA82025
Hay LakeMONTANA62025
HarlemMONTANA62021
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA62021
OkleeMINNESOTA52021
GryglaMINNESOTA52017
BadgerMINNESOTA52018
GlasgowMONTANA52025
Great FallsMONTANA52025
Sun RiverMONTANA52025
ChinookMONTANA42025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA32023
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA32008
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA31970
VirgelleMONTANA22025
Wolf PointMONTANA22024
LambertMONTANA22025
MidwayNEBRASKA21995
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.