BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bewick's Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 1996, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1398.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 1996 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1398.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 1996, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1398.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19661996
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
19920.000.000.07
19930.000.000.07
19940.000.000.07
19950.000.000.07
19960.000.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovingtonVIRGINIA31967
SunnybrookKENTUCKY21975
CumberlandOHIO21973
ClimerTENNESSEE21968
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE21976
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA21967
CanaanWEST-VIRGINIA21981
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA21974
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA21982
MonticelloKENTUCKY11969
BeattyvilleKENTUCKY11968
OldtownMARYLAND11976
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA11982
NewcomerstwnOHIO11966
WintersetOHIO11972
New MarshfldOHIO11973
Coal RunOHIO11981
PomeroyOHIO11968
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA11966
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA11977
JasperTENNESSEE11976
LovellTENNESSEE11969
Corryton RdTENNESSEE11969
WallandTENNESSEE11968
Mt OliveTENNESSEE11972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.