BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bell's Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.64 (95% range 0.30–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.64 (95% range 0.30–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.280.95
20270.620.280.96
20280.630.290.96
20290.630.290.97
20300.640.300.97

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LincolnvilleKANSAS112024
Trading PostKANSAS92025
BarclayKANSAS72025
McfallMISSOURI72025
WainwrightOKLAHOMA72013
ExlineIOWA62025
OhioMISSOURI62025
HuntsvilleMISSOURI62025
FrankfordMISSOURI62024
ThrallKANSAS51967
EllinorKANSAS52025
New PointMISSOURI52025
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA52022
ChandlervillILLINOIS42024
KellILLINOIS42025
DoverKANSAS42022
WrefordKANSAS42024
MoreheadKANSAS42025
SeveranceKANSAS42025
RockinghamMISSOURI42025
HarrisonvilleMISSOURI42025
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS32025
BeaucoupILLINOIS32025
College Spgs 2IOWA32023
HumboldtKANSAS32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.