BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bell's Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.29–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.29–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.270.95
20260.610.270.95
20270.620.280.96
20280.620.280.97
20290.630.290.97

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading PostKANSAS122024
LincolnvilleKANSAS112024
OhioMISSOURI112024
McfallMISSOURI112024
WainwrightOKLAHOMA72013
FrankfordMISSOURI62024
MilfordMISSOURI62024
ThrallKANSAS51967
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA52022
ChandlervillILLINOIS42024
KellILLINOIS42024
DoverKANSAS42022
WrefordKANSAS42024
RockinghamMISSOURI42024
New PointMISSOURI42024
BeaucoupILLINOIS32024
College Spgs 2IOWA32023
HumboldtKANSAS32022
MoreheadKANSAS32024
SeveranceKANSAS32024
RensselaerMISSOURI32023
StetMISSOURI31995
KahokaMISSOURI31995
KearneyMISSOURI32023
Kahoka2MISSOURI32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.