BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
391Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.2–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.719
2027149.619
2028149.519
2029149.419
2030149.218

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClimerTENNESSEE1262004
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA1131978
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA1112025
DurhamNEW-YORK961976
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA661979
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA621974
Jones GapTENNESSEE612019
WarwickNEW-YORK601974
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA601999
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA582025
SpencerWEST-VIRGINIA582024
Coal RunOHIO571992
WilliamsportMARYLAND562025
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA541980
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA491989
StonecreekOHIO472025
OmegaOHIO462024
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA441981
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA431988
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA432001
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA422024
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA421977
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA422025
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA422025
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY412018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.