BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
390Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 9.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 9.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251510.019
2026149.819
2027149.719
2028149.619
2029149.519

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClimerTENNESSEE1262004
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA1131978
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA1072024
DurhamNEW-YORK961976
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA812021
CartersvilleGEORGIA712024
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA661979
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA632024
StonecreekOHIO622024
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA621974
Jones GapTENNESSEE612019
WarwickNEW-YORK601974
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA601999
Coal RunOHIO571992
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA541980
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA491989
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA492024
OmegaOHIO462024
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA441981
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA431988
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA432001
JenningsMARYLAND422024
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA422024
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA421977
ClendeninWEST-VIRGINIA422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.