BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.8–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.8–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171124
2027171123
2028171023
2029161023
2030169.822

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SwaimALABAMA1212025
SyracuseMISSOURI882024
CelestineINDIANA742025
FarwellARKANSAS642018
PlumKENTUCKY632025
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE622019
GlencoeKENTUCKY602022
New PhilaINDIANA582025
HustonvilleKENTUCKY582025
Cole CampMISSOURI541990
AkersMISSOURI512025
PetersburgTENNESSEE492019
LeveeKENTUCKY481982
BoxvilleKENTUCKY481983
White HouseTENNESSEE482019
BelknapILLINOIS472025
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY472025
CyprssINDIANA422025
NewberryINDIANA412025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY412021
TullahomaTENNESSEE412015
BremenILLINOIS382025
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY372025
Kings MtnKENTUCKY372025
SpencerINDIANA362024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.