BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.9–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.9–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171124
2026171123
2027171023
2028161023
2029169.923

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RichlandMISSOURI1042021
SyracuseMISSOURI882024
MillerMISSOURI742024
CelestineINDIANA732024
FarwellARKANSAS642018
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE622019
GlencoeKENTUCKY602022
Cole CampMISSOURI541990
PlumKENTUCKY502024
PetersburgTENNESSEE492019
LeveeKENTUCKY481982
BoxvilleKENTUCKY481983
White HouseTENNESSEE482019
CollinwoodTENNESSEE462024
CentertownMISSOURI442024
EugeneMISSOURI422024
GlenTENNESSEE422024
SwaimALABAMA412024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY412021
TullahomaTENNESSEE412015
BremenILLINOIS392024
BelknapILLINOIS392024
New PhilaINDIANA382024
RoyaltonILLINOIS372024
SpencerINDIANA362024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.