BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 18–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 18–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251833
2027251833
2028261833
2029261833
2030261833

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EllisINDIANA792024
VickeryOHIO672025
PackertownINDIANA602004
N FreedomWISCONSIN572025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN561987
OwendaleMICHIGAN552017
OmroWISCONSIN552001
TrempealeauWISCONSIN542025
LapeerMICHIGAN532025
EdenWISCONSIN532025
KielWISCONSIN482025
KnoxINDIANA472025
LockportOHIO472025
ManitowocWISCONSIN472024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN442025
MukwonagoWISCONSIN442004
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN432024
Omro 2WISCONSIN432025
HighlandWISCONSIN412025
Lake GalenaILLINOIS402021
NapoleonOHIO402025
CascoWISCONSIN402025
WaldenburgMICHIGAN392017
St StephenMINNESOTA392025
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN392025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.