BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 18–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 18–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251833
2026261833
2027261833
2028261834
2029261834

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KielWISCONSIN932022
EllisINDIANA792024
LapeerMICHIGAN792024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN702024
PackertownINDIANA602004
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN561987
EdenWISCONSIN562024
OwendaleMICHIGAN552017
OmroWISCONSIN552001
HollandWISCONSIN542024
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN532024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN502024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN502024
ManitowocWISCONSIN472024
St StephenMINNESOTA462016
LagrangeINDIANA452024
GreshamWISCONSIN452024
MiddleburyINDIANA442024
MukwonagoWISCONSIN442004
N FreedomWISCONSIN432024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN432024
HoltMICHIGAN422024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN422024
BeloitWISCONSIN422024
Le CenterMINNESOTA412023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.