BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 20–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 20–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026262032
2027262032
2028262032
2029262032
2030262032

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Witts StationINDIANA1222025
FilleyMISSOURI822025
BrookvilleINDIANA792025
BelleviewILLINOIS752025
SheffieldILLINOIS742024
WilmingtonOHIO721996
AtkinsonILLINOIS712024
HudsonIOWA702025
ChandlervillILLINOIS682025
MelroseILLINOIS681999
RockinghamMISSOURI672025
MarshallILLINOIS652025
BryantIOWA652025
SextonINDIANA642024
PiersonIOWA642025
Trading PostKANSAS622025
GreenviewILLINOIS612025
EmdenMISSOURI562024
Marion 2OHIO562025
JohnsonNEBRASKA552025
PontiacILLINOIS532025
Cedar ValleyIOWA511997
PittsburgKANSAS502021
GulfportILLINOIS492025
Red RockIOWA492025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.