BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 20–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 20–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262032
2026262032
2027262032
2028262032
2029262032

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS952024
SheffieldILLINOIS742024
WilmingtonOHIO721996
AtkinsonILLINOIS712024
MelroseILLINOIS681999
BrookvilleINDIANA682024
SextonINDIANA642024
EmdenMISSOURI562024
WelchOKLAHOMA562024
FairburyILLINOIS542024
NeolaIOWA522016
Cedar ValleyIOWA511997
Terre HauteILLINOIS502024
PittsburgKANSAS502021
Marion 2OHIO502024
KunkleOHIO492024
Harveysburg 2OHIO492024
EldredILLINOIS482021
LyonsNEBRASKA482024
JohnsonNEBRASKA472024
Queen CityMISSOURI462022
PontiacILLINOIS452024
MillwoodMISSOURI452024
KirksvilleMISSOURI452024
LucerneMISSOURI452021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.