BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969
124Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 6.8–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029
19Projected 2029 index
6.8–3295% range
±29%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025207.432
2026207.332
2027207.132
2028196.932
2029196.832

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA981984
SpartaNEBRASKA672021
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA642014
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA622024
AppletonMINNESOTA562024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA531999
ZearingIOWA521995
ScrantonIOWA512024
TildenNEBRASKA482024
ChokioMINNESOTA462024
OkleeMINNESOTA442021
MaynardMINNESOTA422015
MccallsburgIOWA402024
TracyMINNESOTA372024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA351983
KanawhaIOWA342024
Wolf PointMONTANA342024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA342013
CourtlandMINNESOTA332024
TylerMINNESOTA332024
ChandlerMINNESOTA322023
Big StoneMINNESOTA322012
ArlingtonMINNESOTA312024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA312011
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA312014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.