BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 6.8–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 6.8–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025207.432
2026207.332
2027207.132
2028196.932
2029196.832

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA981984
SpartaNEBRASKA672021
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA642014
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA622024
AppletonMINNESOTA562024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA531999
ZearingIOWA521995
ScrantonIOWA512024
TildenNEBRASKA482024
ChokioMINNESOTA462024
OkleeMINNESOTA442021
MaynardMINNESOTA422015
MccallsburgIOWA402024
TracyMINNESOTA372024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA351983
KanawhaIOWA342024
Wolf PointMONTANA342024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA342013
CourtlandMINNESOTA332024
TylerMINNESOTA332024
ChandlerMINNESOTA322023
Big StoneMINNESOTA322012
ArlingtonMINNESOTA312024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA312011
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA312014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.