BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bald Eagle Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Bald Eagle in Virginia has surged: up 516% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+516%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bald Eagle Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bald Eagle has surged in Virginia: up 516% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Bald Eagle Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.12–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.12–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.100.37
20260.240.100.38
20270.240.110.38
20280.250.110.39
20290.260.120.39

Bald Eagle Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chincoteag W720241993
Port Royal220171996
Big Island220242024
Pungo220241987
Taylorstown120052003
W Augusta120022002
Churchville120231995
Tryme120222022
Rural Retrt120152015
New Market120222022
Gloucester120241994
Walkers120231995
Natural Brid120222022
Amherst120222022
Covesville120242024
Truhart120242005
Brandon120191992
Mannboro120232023
Hall120212006
Cape Charles120142006
White Stone120231969
Sharps120091990
Surry119991987
Quinby120241991
Elamsville120092009

Bald Eagle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.