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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bald Eagle Population Trend in Alaska

All statesBirds of prey

Bald Eagle in Alaska has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-81%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bald Eagle Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bald Eagle has collapsed in Alaska: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Bald Eagle Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Alaska is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Alaska is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.007.5
20270.970.007.4
20280.870.007.3
20290.760.007.2
20300.660.007.1

Bald Eagle Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sitka (Short)9619921984
Ketchikan6620221971
Sitka2320241993
Juneau2220251983
Petersburg1319871987
Chiniak1320251985
Haines920251972
Thorne Bay 2920252013
Yakutat820251993
Kalifonsky720251982
Copper River720111993
Stikine River720241998
Kanektok Riv720051999
Juneau Alt619861984
Adak620011983
Kodiak 2620251985
Kachemak620251986
Cordova520241983
Zimovia Strt520251988
Wrangell (Short)519841984
Kuskulana520221990
Chichagof Is520241997
Slana420242000
Cold Bay420251993
Goodnews Bay420051999

Bald Eagle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.