BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bald Eagle Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Bald Eagle in Alaska has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-76%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bald Eagle Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bald Eagle has collapsed in Alaska: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Bald Eagle Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Alaska is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Alaska is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.007.6
20261.00.007.5
20270.930.007.4
20280.820.007.3
20290.710.007.2

Bald Eagle Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sitka (Short)9619921984
Ketchikan6620221971
Juneau4820241983
Sitka2320241993
Haines1520241972
Petersburg1319871987
Yakutat1020241993
Cold Bay920241993
Zimovia Strt820241988
Chiniak720241985
King Salmon720231994
Kodiak 2720241985
Copper River720111993
Stikine River720241998
Kanektok Riv720051999
Juneau Alt619861984
Adak620011983
Thorne Bay 2620242013
Craig520231987
Cordova520241983
Wrangell (Short)519841984
Kuskulana520221990
Chichagof Is520241997
Slana420242000
Goodnews Bay420051999

Bald Eagle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.