BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bald Eagle In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Bald Eagle in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 974% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+974%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bald Eagle has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 974% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Bald Eagle In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.13–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.13–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.100.26
20260.190.110.26
20270.190.120.27
20280.200.120.28
20290.210.130.28

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FairmontMINNESOTA32021
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22022
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22022
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA22014
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
PantherIOWA12024
WashingtonIOWA12000
KanawhaIOWA12022
MccallsburgIOWA12017
HartlandMINNESOTA12010
HuntleyMINNESOTA12024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12021
CourtlandMINNESOTA12021
DawsonMINNESOTA12015
AppletonMINNESOTA12024
GluekMINNESOTA12013
ChokioMINNESOTA12024
GlyndonMINNESOTA12024
OkleeMINNESOTA12009
BeltramiMINNESOTA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.