BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

American Robin in BCR 4 has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-23%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

American Robin In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251436
2026251436
2027251336
2028251336
2029251336

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Robin in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KachemakALASKA742024
TonsinaALASKA612021
WasillaALASKA591983
Anchor RiverALASKA522024
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA512023
Goose BayALASKA481982
DeltaALASKA472024
ChickenALASKA452024
Tower BluffsALASKA412023
WillowALASKA412024
SourdoughALASKA412024
ChistochinaALASKA372024
CottonwoodALASKA371990
McgrathALASKA342022
KalifonskyALASKA332023
Hatcher PassALASKA332024
Mt. FairplayALASKA322024
EagleALASKA302024
CohoeALASKA302023
Nabesna RoadALASKA292024
Kenny LakeALASKA282024
PetersvilleALASKA282024
Burma RoadALASKA282024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA282024
Kanuti LakeALASKA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.