BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

American Robin in BCR 4 has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-26%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

American Robin In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251336
2027251336
2028251336
2029241336
2030241336

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Robin in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TonsinaALASKA612021
WasillaALASKA591983
WillowALASKA552025
KachemakALASKA542025
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA512023
Nabesna RoadALASKA512025
Goose BayALASKA481982
DeltaALASKA472024
NorthwayALASKA432025
SourdoughALASKA412025
ChistochinaALASKA392025
Kenny LakeALASKA382025
Hatcher PassALASKA372025
Seven LakesALASKA372025
CottonwoodALASKA371990
Lake LouiseALASKA352025
Anchor RiverALASKA342025
McgrathALASKA342022
Burma RoadALASKA322025
CohoeALASKA302023
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA292025
Swan Lake RdALASKA282025
Mt. FairplayALASKA282025
PetersvilleALASKA272025
Kanuti LakeALASKA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.