BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

American Robin in Piedmont has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
171Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

American Robin In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Piedmont is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 20–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Piedmont is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 20–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026312141
2027312140
2028302140
2029302040
2030302040

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording American Robin in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA1741996
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA1712024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND1632025
AkronPENNSYLVANIA1541997
AspersPENNSYLVANIA1531989
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA1371987
WheatonMARYLAND1342025
EarltonMARYLAND1332024
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA1242025
SchwenksvillPENNSYLVANIA1062024
MadonnaMARYLAND1012022
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA942025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND902025
LabottPENNSYLVANIA851983
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA802025
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA761990
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA762022
CrotonNEW-JERSEY742007
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA742024
Bachman MillMARYLAND732025
Upper XrdsMARYLAND732008
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA731988
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY722025
HiramGEORGIA702018
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA702000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.