BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

American Goldfinch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+124%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161221
2026161221
2027171221
2028171221
2029171322

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Goldfinch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT1212011
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS692019
Kittery PtMAINE612024
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS462022
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS402007
White StoneVIRGINIA392024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS332024
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS302024
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT292024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS282024
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS282007
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE282024
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND272024
Island CreekMARYLAND272024
MiltonDELAWARE262016
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE262023
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS252024
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT232022
ShermanCONNECTICUT232019
WilmingtonDELAWARE232014
La PlataMARYLAND232009
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS232022
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS232024
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY222024
GeorgetownDELAWARE212022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.