BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.515
2027117.515
2028117.515
2029117.515
2030117.515

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA642025
McdonoughNEW-YORK552017
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA552025
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA532025
BlacksburgVIRGINIA482025
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA442001
SaltvilleVIRGINIA442025
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA432025
SmithfieldOHIO412025
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA412025
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA402025
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY381997
CooperstownNEW-YORK381977
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
JenningsMARYLAND372025
FinzelMARYLAND362025
ClimerTENNESSEE362004
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA341999
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA342025
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA342025
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY332024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA332022
East JavaNEW-YORK322025
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA322024
WallandTENNESSEE321989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.