BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
404Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.415
2026117.415
2027117.315
2028117.315
2029117.315

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA762024
McdonoughNEW-YORK552017
DrydenNEW-YORK522024
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA512024
BlacksburgVIRGINIA462024
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA442001
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA422024
SmithfieldOHIO392024
StonecreekOHIO392024
New MarketVIRGINIA392024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY381997
CooperstownNEW-YORK381977
Natural BridVIRGINIA382024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
JenningsMARYLAND362024
ClimerTENNESSEE362004
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA352024
CovingtonVIRGINIA352024
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA341999
WolfsvilleMARYLAND332024
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY332024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA332022
Front RoyalVIRGINIA332024
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA322024
WallandTENNESSEE321989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.