BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.913
2026107.013
2027107.013
2028107.113
2029107.113

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SyracuseMISSOURI382024
YorkILLINOIS362024
NewberryINDIANA352024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE312024
FarwellARKANSAS302018
WhitewaterMISSOURI292024
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE292024
RomeOHIO282024
LeveeKENTUCKY271982
GoshenKENTUCKY261999
ComptonARKANSAS222022
Buena VistaKENTUCKY212017
GraydonMISSOURI212024
MerrimacKENTUCKY202024
PulaskiILLINOIS192024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY182019
PleasurevillKENTUCKY182024
AzaliaINDIANA172024
Indian SpgsINDIANA172024
MillionKENTUCKY171986
PalaceMISSOURI172023
Cave In RockILLINOIS162024
KarnakILLINOIS162024
PetersburgTENNESSEE162019
SanduskyILLINOIS152023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.