BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.96.813
2027106.913
2028107.013
2029107.013
2030107.113

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YorkILLINOIS502025
SyracuseMISSOURI382024
NewberryINDIANA342025
RomeOHIO322025
FarwellARKANSAS302018
LeveeKENTUCKY271982
CollinwoodTENNESSEE272025
GoshenKENTUCKY261999
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE242025
ComptonARKANSAS222022
Buena VistaKENTUCKY212017
MerrimacKENTUCKY202024
CascadeMISSOURI202025
BrownvilleILLINOIS182025
Indian SpgsINDIANA182025
Bays ForkKENTUCKY182019
BremenILLINOIS172025
MillionKENTUCKY171986
Cave In RockILLINOIS162024
PlumKENTUCKY162025
East UnionKENTUCKY162025
Peace ValleyMISSOURI162025
CentertownMISSOURI162025
GranitevilleMISSOURI162025
PetersburgTENNESSEE162019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.