BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Crow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

American Crow in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Crow has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Crow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 1.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 1.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.82.016
20278.61.915
20288.51.715
20298.31.515
20308.11.415

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Crow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GryglaMINNESOTA512017
MidwayNEBRASKA412025
OkleeMINNESOTA392021
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA392025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA382025
BadgerMINNESOTA372018
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA352025
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA322017
ZearingIOWA311995
ErieMINNESOTA302017
SpartaNEBRASKA292025
TracyMINNESOTA262025
NashNORTH-DAKOTA262017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA252011
HuntleyMINNESOTA242025
FairmontMINNESOTA232025
WylieMINNESOTA222024
MaynardMINNESOTA212015
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA202012
GarnerIOWA181993
CourtlandMINNESOTA172025
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA152016
WinsideNEBRASKA142003
ArlingtonMINNESOTA132025
GlyndonMINNESOTA132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.