Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes
Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
-63%Since 1977
24Routes In Region
49Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Alder Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1291.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.25Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5695% range
±1291.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2026 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2027 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2028 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2029 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
Routes In Prairie Potholes
| Badger | MINNESOTA | 12 | 2018 |
| Oklee | MINNESOTA | 4 | 2014 |
| Erie | MINNESOTA | 4 | 2017 |
| Turtle Mtns | NORTH-DAKOTA | 3 | 2024 |
| Glyndon | MINNESOTA | 2 | 2010 |
| Beltrami | MINNESOTA | 2 | 1980 |
| Grygla | MINNESOTA | 2 | 2017 |
| Lake Bronson | MINNESOTA | 2 | 2011 |
| Kempton | NORTH-DAKOTA | 2 | 2003 |
| Cooperstown | NORTH-DAKOTA | 2 | 2022 |
| Abercrombie | NORTH-DAKOTA | 2 | 1970 |
| Redwood Fall | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1983 |
| Gluek | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1982 |
| Tenney | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1992 |
| Wylie | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2012 |
| Emerado | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 2022 |
| Nash | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 2016 |
| Lakota | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1993 |
| Niles | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1992 |
| Loraine | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1998 |
| Stanley | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1997 |
| Denbigh | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 2019 |
| Douglas Crk | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 2023 |
| Sheyenne Lk | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1999 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.