BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-63%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1291.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1291.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1291.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.56
20260.250.000.56
20270.250.000.56
20280.250.000.56
20290.250.000.56

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BadgerMINNESOTA122018
OkleeMINNESOTA42014
ErieMINNESOTA42017
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA32024
GlyndonMINNESOTA22010
BeltramiMINNESOTA21980
GryglaMINNESOTA22017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22011
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA22003
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22022
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA21970
Redwood FallMINNESOTA11983
GluekMINNESOTA11982
TenneyMINNESOTA11992
WylieMINNESOTA12012
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12022
NashNORTH-DAKOTA12016
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA11993
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA11992
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA11998
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA11997
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12019
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA12023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.