BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-53%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±674.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±674.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±674.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.000.56
20270.250.000.55
20280.240.000.55
20290.240.000.55
20300.240.000.55

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BadgerMINNESOTA122018
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA72025
OkleeMINNESOTA42014
ErieMINNESOTA42017
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA32024
ChokioMINNESOTA22025
GlyndonMINNESOTA22010
BeltramiMINNESOTA22025
GryglaMINNESOTA22017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22011
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA22003
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA21970
Redwood FallMINNESOTA11983
GluekMINNESOTA11982
TenneyMINNESOTA11992
WylieMINNESOTA12012
LockhartMINNESOTA12025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12022
NashNORTH-DAKOTA12016
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA11993
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA11992
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA11998
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA11997
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.