BirdAnalyst
Guild · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Birds Of Prey In Maine

All statesMaine

14 species in this guild. As a group they are -59%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Birds of prey as a group have fallen sharply in Maine, down 59% since 1968.

Birds Of Prey In Maine Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Maine is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Maine is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.37
20260.030.000.36
20270.020.000.36
20280.010.000.35
20290.010.000.35

Member Species In Maine

Birds of prey species in Maine.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American KestrelFalconidae-80%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-56%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-32%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-20%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae-12%
American GoshawkAccipitridae+23%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+33%
Barred OwlStrigidae+33%
MerlinFalconidae+50%
OspreyPandionidae+80%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+134%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+500%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+575%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+632%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.