BirdAnalyst
Guild · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Alaska

All statesAlaska

65 species in this guild. As a group they are -70%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1972.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Alaska, down 70% since 1972.

Generalists In Alaska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Alaska is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Alaska is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.003.3
20260.590.003.2
20270.510.003.1
20280.430.003.0
20290.350.002.9

Member Species In Alaska

Generalists species in Alaska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Gray-crowned Rosy-FinchFringillidae-92%
Parasitic JaegerStercorariidae-88%
European StarlingSturnidae-88%
Sooty GrousePhasianidae-86%
Rock PtarmiganPhasianidae-86%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-85%
Rufous HummingbirdTrochilidae-85%
American DipperCinclidae-84%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-84%
Spruce GrousePhasianidae-83%
Bohemian WaxwingBombycillidae-79%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-79%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-77%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-77%
Bald EagleAccipitridae-76%
Northern Hawk OwlStrigidae-76%
Steller's JayCorvidae-73%
Eastern Yellow WagtailMotacillidae-73%
Boreal OwlStrigidae-72%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-71%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-66%
Northern ShrikeLaniidae-64%
Pine GrosbeakFringillidae-61%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-60%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-59%
GyrfalconFalconidae-57%
Short-eared OwlStrigidae-54%
Lapland LongspurCalcariidae-53%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-49%
Arctic WarblerPhylloscopidae-49%
Pigeon GuillemotAlcidae-49%
American KestrelFalconidae-49%
American PipitMotacillidae-48%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-47%
American CrowCorvidae-39%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Rusty BlackbirdIcteridae-32%
White-crowned SparrowPasserellidae-28%
Northern Saw-whet OwlStrigidae-18%
Northern Pygmy-OwlStrigidae-9%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+3%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+4%
Canada JayCorvidae+9%
Northern WheatearMuscicapidae+12%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+22%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+22%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+37%
Common RavenCorvidae+48%
Great Gray OwlStrigidae+48%
Peregrine FalconFalconidae+48%
MerlinFalconidae+76%
Fox SparrowPasserellidae+82%
Willow PtarmiganPhasianidae+87%
Marbled MurreletAlcidae+97%
Black-billed MagpieCorvidae+98%
Rough-legged HawkAccipitridae+121%
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae+151%
Western TanagerCardinalidae+208%
Golden-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+240%
Snow BuntingCalcariidae+252%
BluethroatMuscicapidae+328%
Long-tailed JaegerStercorariidae+342%
OspreyPandionidae+359%
American Tree SparrowPasserellidae+518%
Smith's LongspurCalcariidae12×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.