BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Game Birds In Oklahoma

All statesOklahoma

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -59%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have fallen sharply in Oklahoma, down 58% since 1969.

Game Birds In Oklahoma Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 9.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.05–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 9.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.05–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.50.7510
20275.30.5810
20285.10.409.8
20294.90.229.7
20304.80.059.5

Member Species In Oklahoma

Game birds species in Oklahoma.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Scaled QuailOdontophoridae-66%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-56%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae+168%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+826%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.