BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+122%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.95.9
20274.42.95.9
20284.42.95.9
20294.42.95.9
20304.43.05.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT722011
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND442025
WoodstockCONNECTICUT352007
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT342025
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS322019
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT272025
MarionMASSACHUSETTS272025
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND272025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT262018
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND251990
Warren 2CONNECTICUT242025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS222025
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS222025
Jones BeachNEW-YORK202013
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS192025
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS192025
HuntingtonNEW-YORK172023
ShermanCONNECTICUT162019
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS142019
ManorvilleNEW-YORK142024
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS132025
Long HillCONNECTICUT102019
WalkersVIRGINIA102009
GranbyCONNECTICUT92025
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS92007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.