BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.9–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.9–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.85.8
20264.32.85.8
20274.32.85.8
20284.42.95.9
20294.42.95.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT722011
WoodstockCONNECTICUT352007
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS322019
MarionMASSACHUSETTS312024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT262018
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND262024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT252024
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND251990
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT232024
Jones BeachNEW-YORK202013
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS192024
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS172024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK172023
ShermanCONNECTICUT162019
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND152010
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS142019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS142024
ManorvilleNEW-YORK142024
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS132024
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT122024
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS112024
Long HillCONNECTICUT102019
Warren 2CONNECTICUT102024
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS102024
WalkersVIRGINIA102009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.