BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
363Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.6 (95% range 3.2–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.6 (95% range 3.2–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.83.38.2
20275.73.38.2
20285.73.38.1
20295.73.28.1
20305.63.28.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CattaraugusNEW-YORK422019
DrydenNEW-YORK382025
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA372021
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY361997
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA362025
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA362024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA352025
MeridaleNEW-YORK322025
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA322025
OneontaNEW-YORK312025
East JavaNEW-YORK312025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK312025
StonecreekOHIO312025
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA292025
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA282025
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA262025
RiftonNEW-YORK251986
McdonoughNEW-YORK252017
Hop BottomPENNSYLVANIA252025
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA252025
OxfordNEW-YORK241976
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA222025
ParkwoodPENNSYLVANIA222025
E NewarkNEW-YORK212025
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK202025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.