BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
360Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 3.2–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 3.2–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.83.48.3
20265.83.38.2
20275.73.38.2
20285.73.28.2
20295.63.28.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CattaraugusNEW-YORK422019
DrydenNEW-YORK402024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA392024
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA372021
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY361997
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA362024
StonecreekOHIO342024
OneontaNEW-YORK332024
MeridaleNEW-YORK312024
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA272024
SmithfieldOHIO262024
RiftonNEW-YORK251986
McdonoughNEW-YORK252017
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK242024
OxfordNEW-YORK241976
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA242024
Hop BottomPENNSYLVANIA232024
Phillips CrNEW-YORK222024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK222024
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA222024
MoundsvilleWEST-VIRGINIA222024
SpencerWEST-VIRGINIA202023
Swain 2NEW-YORK192024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA192024
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY181995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.