BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+124%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.45–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.45–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.411.5
20270.950.421.5
20280.960.431.5
20290.960.441.5
20300.970.451.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arsenal 2COLORADO232025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA212025
CrawfordNEBRASKA102025
KarvalCOLORADO82001
LingleWYOMING82024
JulesburgCOLORADO72021
KiowaCOLORADO62018
PritchettCOLORADO52016
DaltonNEBRASKA52025
Agate 2NEBRASKA52025
PaxtonNEBRASKA42016
BrownsonNEBRASKA42025
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO42025
TrincheraCOLORADO32025
GroverCOLORADO32024
AgateNEBRASKA32001
HudsonCOLORADO22024
Adams Co.COLORADO22021
Gordon CreekCOLORADO21996
CheyenneCOLORADO22024
Kiowa 2COLORADO22025
Cone MtnCOLORADO22018
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22023
ArsenalCOLORADO22015
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.