BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.42–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.42–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.381.4
20260.920.391.4
20270.930.401.5
20280.940.411.5
20290.940.421.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA92024
KarvalCOLORADO82001
LingleWYOMING82024
JulesburgCOLORADO72021
KiowaCOLORADO62018
YoderWYOMING62024
BennettCOLORADO52018
PritchettCOLORADO52016
Arsenal 2COLORADO52024
Agate 2NEBRASKA52024
TrincheraCOLORADO42022
Kiowa 2COLORADO42023
PaxtonNEBRASKA42016
CrawfordNEBRASKA42024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42024
GroverCOLORADO32024
AgateNEBRASKA32001
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO32012
HudsonCOLORADO22024
Adams Co.COLORADO22021
Gordon CreekCOLORADO21996
CheyenneCOLORADO22024
Cone MtnCOLORADO22018
ElbertCOLORADO22024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.