BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+127%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.88–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.88–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.821.6
20261.20.841.6
20271.30.851.7
20281.30.861.7
20291.30.881.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TruhartVIRGINIA122024
BrandonVIRGINIA112024
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND102018
WalkersVIRGINIA92023
PomonkeyMARYLAND82024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT72018
Warren 2CONNECTICUT72023
PomfretMARYLAND72024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT62024
FrankfordDELAWARE51991
Forest GroveMARYLAND52023
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS52024
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND52024
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND51992
Port RoyalVIRGINIA52019
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT42024
WarrenCONNECTICUT42011
Long HillCONNECTICUT42019
Furnace TownMARYLAND42024
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND42024
IndiantownMARYLAND42014
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS42024
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
E HartlandCONNECTICUT31992
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.