BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+189%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
322Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.9–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.9–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.82.8
20262.31.82.8
20272.31.82.8
20282.31.82.8
20292.41.92.9

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dowling ParkFLORIDA212023
Trace CentralMISSISSIPPI212022
Warrior StdALABAMA142024
CottontonALABAMA142024
BranchvilleVIRGINIA142024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA132014
WorkmoreGEORGIA132019
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI132019
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA131991
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA122023
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI122005
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI122019
Miller XrdsFLORIDA102019
BeverlyMISSISSIPPI102011
Big SandyTENNESSEE102024
WaverlyVIRGINIA101987
ElamvilleALABAMA92024
Hildreth 2FLORIDA92024
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA92022
BaxleyGEORGIA92019
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI91990
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI92018
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA92017
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA92006
SilertonTENNESSEE92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.