BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+192%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.49–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.49–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.451.1
20260.810.461.2
20270.820.471.2
20280.830.481.2
20290.840.491.2

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI92021
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA82024
FreetownLOUISIANA42000
MayflowerLOUISIANA42023
RamahLOUISIANA42024
GibsonLOUISIANA42015
HughesARKANSAS22023
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22024
RoselandLOUISIANA22024
ShawLOUISIANA22024
GonzalesLOUISIANA22013
FrogmoreLOUISIANA22024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22022
BerwickLOUISIANA22011
Morgan CityLOUISIANA22014
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA22024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI22022
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI22022
EudoraARKANSAS12014
South BendARKANSAS12019
HarrisburgARKANSAS11968
SaffellARKANSAS11999
MaynardARKANSAS12003
EnglandARKANSAS12013
WilsonARKANSAS11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.