BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+209%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.9–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.9–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.82.5
20262.21.82.6
20272.21.92.6
20282.31.92.6
20292.31.92.6

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brook ParkMINNESOTA122024
NashvilleMICHIGAN82024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA72024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN72024
BravoMICHIGAN62015
RemusMICHIGAN62024
EvergreenMINNESOTA62024
CumberlandWISCONSIN62024
LapeerMICHIGAN52024
St StephenMINNESOTA52016
EdwardsMINNESOTA52024
AshbyMINNESOTA52021
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA52024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN52024
CadottWISCONSIN52024
PrincetonWISCONSIN52024
GreshamWISCONSIN52024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN42024
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN41987
HungerfordMICHIGAN42024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN42014
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN42019
AlmenaMICHIGAN42015
KnappMINNESOTA42024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.