BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+208%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.9–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.9–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.82.5
20272.21.82.6
20282.21.92.6
20292.31.92.6
20302.31.92.6

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NashvilleMICHIGAN82025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN72025
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA72025
BravoMICHIGAN62015
CohoctahMICHIGAN62025
EvergreenMINNESOTA62025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA62025
LoraineWISCONSIN62025
St StephenMINNESOTA52025
EdwardsMINNESOTA52024
AshbyMINNESOTA52021
DresserWISCONSIN52025
N FreedomWISCONSIN52025
PrincetonWISCONSIN52024
KnoxINDIANA42025
RemusMICHIGAN42025
MottvilleMICHIGAN42025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN41987
LapeerMICHIGAN42025
New BuffaloMICHIGAN42014
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN42019
AlmenaMICHIGAN42015
Brook ParkMINNESOTA42025
CumberlandWISCONSIN42025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.