BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Yellow-throated Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.50–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.50–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.481.3
20270.880.481.3
20280.890.491.3
20290.890.491.3
20300.900.501.3

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK92025
GarrettsvileOHIO81991
NaplesNEW-YORK62025
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
CloverPENNSYLVANIA52025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK42025
CatskillsNEW-YORK42015
PulaskiNEW-YORK42025
BalmatNEW-YORK41989
LucerneOHIO42025
ShaftsburyVERMONT42023
E YoungstownNEW-YORK32024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK32004
Alder CreekNEW-YORK32004
OgdensburgNEW-YORK32025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA32025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA32025
HighlandNEW-YORK22012
AusterlitzNEW-YORK22025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21970
DuanesburgNEW-YORK22025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22009
Canadice LNEW-YORK22021
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK22025
PenfieldNEW-YORK21975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.