BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Yellow-throated Vireo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.47–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.47–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.451.2
20260.840.461.2
20270.840.461.2
20280.840.461.2
20290.850.471.2

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GarrettsvileOHIO81991
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
CatskillsNEW-YORK42015
North EastonNEW-YORK42024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK42024
BalmatNEW-YORK41989
ShaftsburyVERMONT42023
AusterlitzNEW-YORK32024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK32004
Alder CreekNEW-YORK32004
LattasburgOHIO32024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA32023
HighlandNEW-YORK22012
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21970
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22009
Canadice LNEW-YORK22021
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22022
PenfieldNEW-YORK21975
PulaskiNEW-YORK22024
SalemNEW-YORK22024
WaddingtonNEW-YORK21982
PittsfieldOHIO22023
StrongsvilleOHIO21993
LenoxOHIO22024
MaysvilleOHIO22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.