BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±285.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.000.39
20250.130.000.39
20260.130.000.39
20270.130.000.38
20280.130.000.38

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawanoFLORIDA112001
Weaver StnFLORIDA62018
Vero BeachFLORIDA52017
St AugustineFLORIDA41999
Plantation KFLORIDA31989
AlvaFLORIDA32005
Dale MabryFLORIDA21980
Sunniland GrFLORIDA21975
PinecrestFLORIDA22002
SalvistaFLORIDA21978
TamiamiFLORIDA21971
SandyFLORIDA21997
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22009
MicanopyFLORIDA11973
Myakka HeadFLORIDA12010
San AntonioFLORIDA11984
Polk CityFLORIDA11980
MabelFLORIDA11995
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12008
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA11987
KenansvilleFLORIDA11987
IndiantownFLORIDA11984
Boca RatonFLORIDA11980
AndytownFLORIDA11979
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.