BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±708%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±708%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±708%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.06
20230.020.000.06
20240.010.000.06
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirminghamALABAMA111995
Pine GroveALABAMA21996
Smyer LakeALABAMA21990
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA22003
SummittALABAMA11972
GreensportALABAMA11989
Mt OliveALABAMA11980
GuntersvilleALABAMA12017
ChildersburgALABAMA11998
OdenvilleALABAMA12011
BrooksvilleALABAMA12008
TalladegaALABAMA12006
DrummondALABAMA12021
RiversideALABAMA12013
SmithsburgMARYLAND11981
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA11977
Red BankTENNESSEE11977
SoddyTENNESSEE11978
LovellTENNESSEE12008
Oliver SpgsTENNESSEE11993
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.