BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.25
20270.120.000.25
20280.120.000.25
20290.120.000.25
20300.120.000.25

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KosseTEXAS92009
E GeorgetownTEXAS41972
Wolfe CityTEXAS41970
ChoctawOKLAHOMA31996
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA31994
Massey LakeTEXAS32025
AlbanyTEXAS32016
CarlosTEXAS32025
DecaturTEXAS31999
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22016
MuldoonTEXAS21971
LockhartTEXAS22025
Peach CreekTEXAS21985
OsageTEXAS21981
DallasTEXAS22018
Glen RoseTEXAS22016
DikeTEXAS22015
GainesvilleTEXAS22009
Oak Grove 2TEXAS22017
Thornton 2TEXAS22001
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12016
LocoOKLAHOMA11976
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12025
NobleOKLAHOMA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.