BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.24
20260.110.000.24
20270.110.000.24
20280.110.000.24
20290.110.000.24

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS92024
KosseTEXAS92009
E GeorgetownTEXAS41972
Wolfe CityTEXAS41970
ChoctawOKLAHOMA31996
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA31994
AlbanyTEXAS32016
DecaturTEXAS31999
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22016
MuldoonTEXAS21971
Peach CreekTEXAS21985
OsageTEXAS21981
DallasTEXAS22018
Glen RoseTEXAS22016
DikeTEXAS22015
GainesvilleTEXAS22009
Oak Grove 2TEXAS22017
Thornton 2TEXAS22001
CarlosTEXAS22019
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12016
LocoOKLAHOMA11976
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12008
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12023
NobleOKLAHOMA12008
TatumsOKLAHOMA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.