BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.06
20210.000.000.05
20220.000.000.05
20230.000.000.05
20240.000.000.05

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaysKANSAS41969
Shields 2TEXAS32014
MisslerKANSAS21996
WeinertTEXAS21994
St JohnKANSAS11975
AlbertKANSAS12019
GrayKANSAS11975
RandlettOKLAHOMA11968
CookietownOKLAHOMA12006
ReedOKLAHOMA11982
VerdenOKLAHOMA11970
ErickOKLAHOMA11997
DouglasOKLAHOMA11976
ColonyOKLAHOMA11995
WinchellTEXAS11977
GraybackTEXAS11988
ChildressTEXAS11976
HackberryTEXAS12006
Beaver CreekTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.