BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-86%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±218.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.63
20260.110.000.62
20270.100.000.61
20280.100.000.60
20290.090.000.59

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS82023
Black GapTEXAS31992
GirvinTEXAS22015
OzonaTEXAS22019
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22016
ToyahvaleTEXAS21999
Dove Mtn.TEXAS22004
PumpvilleTEXAS22012
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11975
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12009
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12017
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11994
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12013
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12009
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12016
MesillaNEW-MEXICO12000
ComstockTEXAS12023
Hot SpringsTEXAS12024
ShafterTEXAS11981
LongfellowTEXAS12023
ValentineTEXAS11969
Delaware CrkTEXAS11973
Casa PiedraTEXAS12015
LangtryTEXAS12000
CastolonTEXAS11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.