BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.25
20260.020.000.24
20270.010.000.24
20280.010.000.23
20290.000.000.23

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaNEBRASKA42021
DawsonMINNESOTA31986
BadgerMINNESOTA32001
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA32000
TildenNEBRASKA32019
ArlingtonMINNESOTA21983
GlyndonMINNESOTA21978
BeltramiMINNESOTA21998
FranklinMINNESOTA22019
Big StoneMINNESOTA22006
WinsideNEBRASKA21999
MidwayNEBRASKA22023
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA22006
PantherIOWA12022
WashingtonIOWA12022
KanawhaIOWA12019
ZearingIOWA11995
ScrantonIOWA12022
ClareIOWA12018
GarnerIOWA11993
TitonkaIOWA12022
MccallsburgIOWA12019
BurchinalIOWA12023
HartlandMINNESOTA12005
HuntleyMINNESOTA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.